The Burmese government appears to be losing its grip on the former  Democratic Karen Buddhist Army forces that last year joined the Border  Guard Force. (Photo: Chandler Vandergrift)    
 
Although the Burmese government appeared to have won a strategic  victory last year when it convinced most of the Democratic Karen  Buddhist Army (DKBA) to join its Border Guard Force (BGF), both the  strategy and the victory seem to be unraveling as many Karen BGF troops  are either deserting back to the DKBA or shifting their loyalties to the  armed ethnic group while remaining in government uniform.
Tellingly,  when a group of Karen BGF soldiers gathered on their military base and  watched footage of the bloody clash initiated by Brig-Gen Saw Lah Pwe  and his breakaway DKBA Brigade 5 against Burmese government troops in  Myawaddy last November, they cheered the Brigade 5 fighters, said a DKBA  source. 
“I was surprise when I saw this. They are BGF but they  cheered the DKBA. It seems to me that the BGF doesn’t really exist,” he  said. “It is like Saw Lah Pwe is their hero.”
Lt-Col Po Bi is the  head of Karen BGF Battalion 1012, which until recently occupied Myaing  Gyi Nyu, the former DKBA headquarters in Hlaing Bwe Township, southern  Karen State. On May 24, he kicked out his BGF government advisors and  ordered the 500 soldiers under his command to remove the BGF badges from  their uniforms and replace them with their old DKBA insignia.
After  this act of open defiance, Po Bi announced there are no more BGF troops  in Myaing Gyi Nyu, only DKBA. He then deployed his troops in Mae Tha  Waw in southern Karen State and ordered them to stay on high alert while  they waited to see the government's reaction.
At least two other  BGF battalions joined the Po Bi-led faction and defied the BGF, with  the rest of the Karen BGF battalions remaining neutral thus far. Sources  said the majority of Karen troops that previously joined the BGF have  now unofficially resumed their status as DKBA soldiers.
There are  divisions between Karen BGF battalions and the top Karen leaders in the  BGF who previously headed up the DKBA and are now BGF government  advisors, including Gen Kyaw Than, Col Chit Thu and Pah Nwee.
Sources  in Myaing Gyi Nyu said U Thuzana, a Buddhist monk who is influential  with the Karen BGF troops, has been attempting for one month to get all  Karen BGF battalions to reunite with the DKBA.    
U Thuzana  reportedly traveled recently to Pa-an, the capital of Karen State, to  meet BGF advisor Gen Kyaw Than with the intention of urging him to  return the BGF battalions to DKBA ranks. However, Kyaw Than has not  agreed to the monk's request.
However, sources reported that the  Karen BGF, DKBA Brigade 5 and KNLA troops are now connected and have  agreed to provide back-up military assistance to each other if  government troops attack.
The government appears to have lost  control over the Karen BGF, the sources reported. In addition, some  Karen BGF soldiers stationed at frontline bases have developed good  relationships with KNLA soldiers, a potential threat to the Naypyidaw  given that the BGF is estimated to have 2,000 armed men while DKBA  Brigade 5 has about 1,000 and the KNLA has about 4,000.
“Po Bi's  troops won’t open fire against government troops first. But if the  government forces open fire against them, there will be a big war,” said  Brig-Gen Johnny, the commander of Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA)  Brigade 7.
“It is time for the Karen to be united, we have to  help each other. I want to call on all Karen people inside and outside  Burma to help each other,” he said.
In preparation for war, the  Karen rebels ordered their fighters to stand by and collected ammunition  and rations such as rice and dry foods, sources said.
Some DKBA  family members, especially women and children, have moved to the  Thai-Burma border due to fears of resumed fighting, said Htoo Klei, the  secretary of the Karen Office of Relief and Development (KORD).
The  fact that Myaing Gyi Ngu is now under full control of DKBA and KNLA  troops might provoke the Burmese military, one observer said. But  state-run television denied that Myaing Gyi Ngu is occupied by the Karen  armed ethnic groups, and other observers said the government will try  and break the unity of Karen armed groups by using divide-and-rule  tactics.
Due primarily to their religious differences, the DKBA  split from the Christian-dominated Karen National Union, the political  wing of the KNLA, in 1994 and signed a ceasefire agreement with the  government in 1995. Afterward, with the backing of government troops,  the DKBA launched attacks against the KNLA until the fall of Marnerplaw,  the KNU headquarters.
  
However, after the bloody clash in Myawaddy on Nov.
Source : Irrawaddy